El Nigno Biography

El-Nignio and La-Ninya: why a boy and a girl who changing the climate began to come more often, on February 3 among climatologists, there is currently a certain consensus regarding climatic changes: as humanity increases the emission of greenhouse gases, the planet is heated. Global warming causes changes that are already jeopardizing the life and health of hundreds of millions of people on the planet.

These are heat waves that occur with an increasing frequency, increasing sea level, melting ice, strong variability of the weather, as well as an increase in extreme weather phenomena. Similar phenomena, but only at the global level, include such important climatic fluctuations as El Nigno and La-Ninya. The thermal accumulator is the term El-Nigno “Boy” in Spanish, and La-Ninya, In the normal process of water circulation, the Peruvian flow carries cold waters along the western coast of the southern cone.

When turning to the west, an upwitch is observed along the equator - a rise in cold ocean waters. Passats drive off the heated surface layer to the western part of the Pacific Ocean. El-Nigno's offensive leads to the fact that the passats are weakening and surface waters are heated in a larger Pacific Ocean. In the direction of the Peruvian coast, a stream of warm waters begins to rush, the upwell is weakening, and plentiful rains begin to spill in the Peruvian desert, which often leads to floods, destruction of houses and deaths.

In general, the arrival of the “boy” leads to the fact that in the region it becomes warmer and more humid. In contrast to him, the "girl" makes the region dry and colder. Usually both phenomena are absent and the temperature of the water is “normal”. El-Nigno and La-Nigne do not have some rigidly defined period. They simply replace each other, for example, the “boy” on average comes every year, and the “girl” - less often.

And vice versa, La-Ninya is even more dried by the American southwest, which begins to suffer from a lack of water. At the same time, with the onset of El Nigno, the activity of Atlantic cyclones decreases. But, of course, they existed before. And even then they were distinguished by catastrophic consequences. But not on their own-but because of the "ideal storm" of adverse events.

On the one hand, European colonialism, primarily British, played an important role, and its practices to seize land in the colony, mass cutting of forests, crops of export crops and their export to metropolis. On the other hand, a mass of indigenous peoples that have lost land collided with the drought and policies of total non -interference of the conquerors into an unfolding food crisis.

The result of such a policy was the mass death of people. Hunger in Bangalore GG. Photo: Wellcome Library Image Catalogue, Ww Hooper Group of Emaciated Young according to the calculations of the American historian Mike Davis, by the beginning of the 20th century in the colonies and countries dependent on European metro, on the total effect of El-Nino cycles, replacing traditional farming From 30 to 60 million people died by plantations and continuing the export of grain in a drought.

In turn, these tragic events became a catalyst for tectonic social shifts in the colonies. Nationalism developed in India, continuous uprisings took place in China and Asia, in Latin America the local governments tried to get rid of the dominance of European powers. All this attracted additional attention to the climatic phenomenon, according to which theoretically it is possible to predict the droughts and the need to regulate the food policy.

Photo: canva of natural disasters.

The study of these two natural phenomena led to the fact that among the “adequate” climategisters, theories began to walk, that El Nignio cycles-southern oscillation are actually “guilty” in increasing temperature on the planet and climatic changes. Allegedly, this is not human activity, but long -known natural phenomena. And very quickly we will see real cooling and a drop in temperature.

This kind of “advanced dissidents” relied on serious scientific works, for example, investigating the problems of the influence of greenhouse gases on the thinning of the ozone layer or the state of ozone holes over different continents. However, these forecasts did not materialize not that it bothered the far -right media type Breitbart, which distributed such materials.

If you follow the calculations of climatic skeptics, the temperature should have started to fall since October. In fact, the global temperature continued to grow, updating one record after another, having reached 1.1 degrees Celsius above the last 10 years of a sustainable indicator above the norm. At the same time, scientific studies make a connection between the frequency of extreme phenomena-including such global ones as El Nigno and La-Nigne-and climatic changes obvious.The frequency of El Nigno increased, and this leads to increased drought, worsening the situation with floods and a change in the nature of hurricanes, which become more destructive.

This means that the inter -year variability of extreme temperatures and the frequency of forest fires increase. Thus, the future El Nigno will make floods more likely, while future la-Nenya will bring more drought and strengthening the seasons of forest fires. Which in turn leads to an increase in the emission of CO2. We can say that El-Nigno of the future will have a greater impact on our climate than El-Nigno, which formed at the end of the 20th century.

That is, the anthropogenic climate change leads to the fact that the weather on the planet is increasingly moving from one extreme to another. A dangerous displacement of 33 El-Nigno phenomena, which were recorded in years, since the year all 11 have formed in the western and central part of the Pacific Ocean. However, until this year, the absolute and vast majority of El Nigno's phenomena appeared in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean.

It was where they were implicitly recorded by the Peruvian fishermen and the first researchers in the 19th century. Together with a displacement of hundreds of kilometers to the west, the first “Super El Nigno”-in the years, were recorded. Already a strong El Nigno can cause serious drought in a dry climate, which is clearly visible in Australia and India. It causes intensive floods in a more humid climate, for example, in the north-west of the Pacific Ocean and in Peru.

At the same time, a large number of hurricanes in the Pacific appear at the same time. The “super” option is a tightening of the consequences of a natural phenomenon to catastrophic proportions. El-Nigno, for example, took thousands of lives due to heat, floods, droughts and storms, and the damage from it was estimated at $ 96 billion. But even the “ordinary” El Nigno or La-Ninya, under the appropriate conditions, can bring the situation to the disaster.

The drought on the African horn in the year in less than six months led to mass hunger. In Somalia, 29 thousand children died in a few months. About thousands of more were in the threat of death due to the total lack of water and food, as well as threats coming from terrorist groups. The nightmare of drought in the region of East Africa is that it is never limited to one country.

And with each new arrival of El Nigno or La Nigni, the drought area expands. If in the year urgent assistance should have been provided by 10 million inhabitants of the region, then in the year already 13 million. More than 55 million need food supplies, which is almost twice as higher than in the year, when the needy was 28 million. They are a reserve of starvation, at every moment in time ready to replenish the ranks of those for whom any amount of food and water is a matter of life and death.

However, in fact, there are much more regions of the world that urgently need help. Strong heat led to fires in India and Indonesia. Moreover, in the latter case, the fact that the plantations of the oil palm expand in a rapid pace in the country. The jungle is cut down, and often just burned. Due to dry weather, which is installed thanks to El Nigno, fires cover an area of ​​hundreds of thousands and millions of hectares.

For example, in a year in one month in Indonesia, 15 million hectares of plantations and forests burned down in Indonesia. Among other things, dry and hot weather leads to loss of products. In years only on Java, Indonesia lost 3 million tons of rice. In India, where the El-Nigno effect seriously affects the period of the monsoons when the maximum amount of precipitation falls, the situation is even worse.

India lost tens of millions of tons of food due to drought, lack of water and non-optimized irrigation systems. Add here soil erosion and forest reduction, and you will get a situation that at any moment is ready to break into a real hunger. Kangaroo Valley in km from Sydney, January of course, the main causes of fires are not reduced to this climatic phenomenon.

However, unusually hot and dry weather, which formed because of him, made fires unusually long and catastrophic. 34 people were killed directly from them, more than more buildings and buildings burned down, and tens of billions of dollars were caused. It was alleged that 3 billion ground vertebrates suffered, of which more than 1 billion were killed. Some species that are at risk of extinction simply died out because of this anthropogenic disaster.

At the same time, the consequences of fires were felt not only on the continent itself. The smoke was classified 11 thousand kilometers east and affected Argentina and Chile. The disaster has become truly global. The triple threat was even more destructive consequences of the years from the "sister" El-Nigno-La-Ninhi. The drought and fires in the United States caused damage to the economy by more than 70 billion dollars.

Storms were raging off the coast of Latin America and in the Caribbean Sea, which only a person took away the lives of life, and the damage to the economies of countries that were subjected to elements were calculated in billions of dollars.This year, many will be remembered by the rare phenomenon-“Triple La Ninya”, that is, three winters in a row in the Northern Hemisphere passed in the conditions of this phenomenon.

Signs of the influence of the “girls” are observed in the ongoing drought in the area of ​​the African horn and in the southern part of South America. In Southeast Asia and Australia, the amount of precipitation is much higher than average. Finally, it is predicted to increase the average level of activity of the hurricanes in the Atlantic. Photo: Canva, according to forecasts, ends La-Ninya only in the year, which means only one thing-we are expecting the next climatic shocks.

For example, in the USA there will be the next season of drought and heavy rains. Together, this will lead to serious economic and environmental consequences for all countries of the Asia-Pacific region, Africa south of Sahel, Indian subcontinent and Latin America. Thus, we risk repeating the situation of one and a half century ago, when tens of millions of people died due to the aggregate effect of global climatic fluctuations, the lack of measures to adapt them, the destruction of natural landscapes and the specifics of agriculture, imprisoned primarily in global markets, and not to ensure food security.